Thursday, June 28, 2012

Age of Entry and NBA Success

Jun Woo Kim and I recently published a (non-legal) statistical article in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports that looks at age and NBA success. A link to the article can be found here. The abstract is below:

The NBA’s age eligibility rule is controversial. To examine the on-court efficacy of the NBA’s age eligibility rule, we test the effect of age of entry on NBA career performance. Our data set comprises the 332players selected in the first round of the NBA draft from 1989 and 2000. Using censored normal regression models, we found that players drafted at a relatively younger age have more successful NBA careers across three different metrics. To explore a beneficial effect of one year in college, group selection bias tests were conducted by comparing differences in career success between quasi-“one-and-done” players and players who entered the NBA straight out of high school. The results were consistent with our main analyses – players who moved into the NBA directly from high school generally perform better than players with a single year of college experience. We find no systematic evidence in support of the on-court efficacy of the NBA’s age eligibility rule.